Our first impression is usually right, and this, along with many other things, becomes glaringly apparent in the stock market. Just like in life, if you overthink, your result is usually worse, not better.
There is one person that applies this logic probably better than anybody in the world: Donald J. Trump. Most people believe that his simplistic way of articulating himself is an indication of his stupidity, and to some extent this could very well be the case, but nobody achieves what he has without some element of intelligence.
“I try to step back and remember my first shallow reaction. The day I realized it can be smart to be shallow was, for me, a deep experience.”
He went to Wharton School of Finance, one of the top business schools in the world, and was coached from an early age by his father, a multi millionaire New York real estate magnet. He is certainly no dummy. He was also influenced by Norman Vincent Peale, the man who popularized in America the idea of the power of positive thinking; even inviting him to be the officiator at his first wedding, and this was in the 1970’s, long before he became the cultural icon he is today.
When faced with a complicated situation, simplification and using common sense is usually the best approach, which is especially true in the world of construction, where Trump thrives. In most cases, the more complicated your plan of action, the more likely that something will go wrong, so even when the odds are high, it is usually best to just go with the most obvious solution. Pokernews wrote a great article about this concept. You can check it out here.
Now, this isn’t to say you should act impulsively. Sure, definitely consider all possible angles, but don’t let your careful calculation cause you to look past the obvious!